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Well
here we are, we have reached February 2009 pretty
much intact. Obama is in charge and hitting the ground
running. It’s the Year of the Ox and he’s
an Ox so expect a very steady hand, plain speaking
and determination. He’s a perfect match for our
times and boy do we need a sensible pair of hands.
I'm impressed so far.
The streets are filling up with protesters right across
Europe and by all means there is a lot to protest
but I don't really think anyone has a solution out
there - not one that will magic up prosperity and
return the Depression Genie back into the flask. Certainly
not Gordon Brown. In the UK in Lincolnshire men are
protesting that Italians and Portugese are filling
jobs they could do - indeed it makes little sense
to ship men all the way from Italy to weld pipes in
England but then, we can and do work anywhere in Europe
if we want to and that's a great right to have. I'd
hate for short term protectionism to scupper that.
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Protectionism
was the fatal flaw of the Great Depression in the 1930s
and it is tempting for politicians to go down that road.
(Check US Steel for US projects which is going to be more
expensive than Indian or UK steel for example). If we are
going to turn our backs on global economics be prepared
for everything getting a lot worse and political solutions
you may not savour. Extreme Left or Right.
Meanwhile the bankers quaffed $1000 dollar wine in Davos
and thanedk their lucky stars they bought the Villas, Aston
Martins, Football clubs, and paid the school fees before
everything went tits up. Am I alone in not giving creedence
to this idea that we need bankers and their billion dollar
bonuses so the rest of us can enjoy trickle down prosperity.
Can we burn an effigy of Milton Freedman now and have done
with him forever? Do you feel trickle downed? I'm just asking.
If it is so great that people can pay $20,000,000 for a
house why can't they pay say a ten percent property tax
on that so we can build fifty homes for rent to teachers
or firemen or whomever - - just an idea. They can even cut
the ribbon when they open.
Right
now you are probably reeling as the daily toll of jobs lost
and businesses going bust seems pretty much endless. It’s
not going to stop either, not for a while until this thing
burns through. Lives will be ruined and dreams broken, but
I’m old enough to have lived through this before, the
last time Labour was in power in the UK in fact. History
tells me it’s going to take a lot longer to recover
than last time, as the speed of the decline has been so
rapid and the stakes so much higher.
It was obvious last year when the oil price went berserk,
reaching $147 a barrel, that this would break the back of
the boom – only few people were really saying that
at the time. Some were predicting oil at $200. Crazy. No
one seemed to reading history at all.
It happened in the seventies with the same effect, oil spiking
at $80-90 bucks, Israel at war with its neighbours. As inflation
soared wrecking career options, no one could get mortgages
or loans they could afford to pay back- inflation was at
25%. For a while the future was cancelled and there was
loose talk of military coups, even in the UK.
So here we are again and with the recession will come other
stresses and strains too, social upheaval, transforming
values. What can you do to beat it? That’s a little
harder.
Someone quite close to me is going through that now. It’s
not just unemployment; it’s a loss of a way of life
and self-validation. With no job one can often lose confidence.
Right now it’s possibly time to make a whole life change,
but to what? How do you know if that is the right choice
and that you won’t end up on the scrap heap ten years
down the line all over again? Well you don’t. There
are no certainties. I can guarantee that.
After film school I wrote. I was determined to make it as
a writer. Finally after much heartache and criticism from
the family who desperately wanted me to ‘get a real
job’ I finally broke through with my first novel published
in the UK, USA and Europe. Ten years later I’d had
four novels published and a possible writing for TV career
looming. I was still earning some money from writing radio
plays but it was dying as a profession as series and drama
slots got cancelled – (it still thrives in the UK but
there’s a firewall there way too hard to break through
without influence).
Suddenly it stopped- everything stopped. It took me a whole
year to realise that I wasn’t going to be earning a
living from writing anymore – at least not from books.
It began to dawn on me that money from royalties wasn’t
coming in. In fact I never even got statements – trusting
people has been my major fault for years. It was very painful
realisation for me to realise that publishers look after
themselves and their penthouses first and I wasn’t
going to get paid, or find out the truth. For one moment
there was a glimmer of hope. I’d just sold a newly
completed book. An historical novel I’d been researching
and working on for over eighteen months. The US publisher
offered an advance of $15,000 but two months later at the
proof stage, when they finally paid up, the cheque bounced.
The company had folded just like that. The New York and
London agents were unbelievably unsympathetic and we parted
company.
I had an accident in Vancouver that month and needed an
urgent operation and wow, the speed of my personal meltdown
was swift as I realised I had no money and everyone else
was scaling back or going under too. It was scary. I had
to sell everything to stay afloat and make some tough choices.
I went into teaching, been there ever since. What I’m
saying it, I thought I had a career, struggled to get it,
paid my dues, but it didn’t work out. I did try to
keep going – the Ox trait of keeping on keeping on
– but fortunately I met someone who basically made
me face up to the need to earn a living and move on.
That was the hardest part. Moving on.
Sure I didn’t give up writing entirely, but once you’re
out of the game it gets harder. Sold a few articles –
got published in Elle and whatever – as I got my book
rights back after many years republished a couple of titles
with Lulu to keep them alive, adding two more new ones because,
in the end, if your a writer, you write and you have to
polish your skills or lose them.
Teaching is time-sucking however and then there’s marking
and if you take it all seriously, as I do, you want to be
a good teacher, not one of those you may have had who just
didn’t seem to care. I vowed I’d always care because
I remembered my own teachers and their stunning indifference;
extreme pettiness and I never wanted to be one of those.
(Those kind of teachers still exist sadly but you don’t
have to speak to them and the students are much more savvy
now and know to limit their exposure).
Teaching has other rewards. You gain friends, good friends.
Even though it ages you real fast, you meet young people
with talent and optimism and you can help, make a difference
– sometimes, and be supportive. I love spotting some
young writers potential and nurturing that development.
Few go further with it, possibly sensing it is hard road
filled with brutal rejection, but I always live in hope.
There’s a great deal of pleasure in watching someone
succeed I discovered. That’s pretty much all you have
to be (aside from knowing what the hell you are talking
about). At first, when I began, I resented giving up my
chosen path, but quickly realised that in actual fact teaching
is more rewarding, less isolating and hey, you get paid.
Every month in fact. Unlike six months or annually or never
as a writer.
Just to punish myself even further, I run Hackwriters.
Ten bloody years no less now, getting a new edition out
every month for nothing – zero financial return. Yes,
truly dear reader I must be certifiable. Am certifiable
in fact.
But we have had successes. Students have built a platform
and gone on to careers in publishing or advertising or as
writers, random individuals I have never met had gotten
travel books deals or sold the odd story from it and it
serves a purpose I guess. We even now publish an annual
print version in Borderlines.
So – here’s the message. Yes there is a recession,
things are bad, you may have lost your job, your way, your
savings, but you can only live in denial for so long. Sooner,
rather than later, you need to pick up the pieces, pack
you and your shadow into a new bag and discover what it
is you should be doing. The teaching course could be a good
idea if you are good with people, or doing an MA (in something
that arouses passion in you) you might travel to find yourself
but remember it is still you coming back with baggage. It
may be you decide to become a plumber, a carpenter, police-officer,
painter, teach English in Vietnam – it doesn’t
matter what, as long as you can find a way to believe in
it, enjoy it and not resent it. Change is forced upon us
sometimes, but often, if you learn to go with the flow you
learn to be a totally new person and even get to like that
version of you a whole lot better.
But heed this – it’s never too late to change
– turn things around – we live a very long time
now. If you are under 35 reading this and live in the West
you could statistically live until you are 95 and the career
you had at 35 will be a dim memory by then. We can live
three maybe four lives and have several careers in that
time. It is times like these that make us think of changes
and ultimately makes you take charge of your future rather
than leaving it to fate.
And in doing so – fate will take care of you.
A very Happy Chinese New Year to you all – may the
Ox plough a steady course.
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Reasons
to be Cheerful: Part Three
Ox years are better. Steady years - recovery from
the turbulence of the past kind of years. I'm thinking
that it will be better than we deserve. I seem to
recall Ox year 1973 was a pretty bad year all round
with wars, fuel price surges and social unrest but
the world got through it intact. I’m told. So
yes 2009 could be the worse year of our lives –
the one we shall talk about forever as being ‘you
remember when…’ And faces will fall and
lives will be changed. The stock market already went
up in anticipation and although it will fall again,
I think it sets the tone for how the year will end.
We all know what a precipice looks like now and Ox's
don't jump Just be glad it isn't the year of the horse!
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This is
the year I hope the British electorate finally realise just
how spectacularly incompetent and arrogant Gordon Brown has
been these last twelve years and boot him out when he calls
an early election. (You can’t wait until everyone is
unemployed Gordon – you will have to go this year or
lose so badly next it will make history for all the wrong
reasons).
Obama finally gets to run things from Jan 20th and he is going
to be so utterly disappointed to find how much real damage
Bush and Cheney have done to the fabric of America. From the
last minute repealing of all the environmental laws, the squandering
of tax dollars on useless things, the extravagance of a war
fought on a lie and the collapse of infrastructure right across
the continent. This is one hell of a mountain to climb and
he will need all of eight years to fix it. I only hope he
has enough time and political good will. But he is surrounding
himself with intelligent people and that makes quite a difference
don't you think and can only help.
China will finally realise that having its economy tied to
the USA is a huge mistake and with luck Americans will begin
to realise that too and demand something is actually made
in the USA (aside from cars no one wants or needs). China
to save itself should also invest hugely in infrastructure
and perhaps now is a good time to think about food, water
and air quality – the melamine scare may just the tip
of an iceberg in cheating the Chinese people. If China wishes
to be the world superpower it craves – it needs to think
about all those left behind by the economic miracle and find
a way to include them, then and only then can it be the shining
beacon of hope it believes itself to be.
Africa, little touched by the recession so far – if only
because so much of it is so poor already, must find the courage
to police its tyrants – starting with Mugabe. If they
cannot and if South Africa cannot find the will to remove
a man who has systematically destroyed a whole country out
of spite, then there is no hope for any country in Africa.
Whether Kenya, Congo, Somalia, Ethiopia, too many African
countries are without hope or fairness and spinning downward
in a death spiral. The UN cannot save them all, or indeed
any, until they find the will to save themselves. There is
a good heart in Africa but needs help - it cannot beat without
the rule of law and human rights.
2009 will be a year of change. Huge change. We might find
that as major brands and retailers go under that we can live
without them. (Despite the thousands storming the stores after
Christmas to buy bargains in a frenzy of consumerism). Certainly
shopping on-line has come of age. If only delivery could be
worked out, but then again, since most of us won’t have
jobs, at least we will be home when they call huh.
Predictions are useless, particularly in a panic and depression.
Who knows what shape the world will be in 2010, but change
means the getting of wisdom. Israel might want to think about
that as it shuns world sympathy so easily as it takes on Hamas.
Over a week in there now and 450 dead as I write this. All
very depressing for all concerned.
Politics will change. First to the left and then to the right.
History gives us enough to think about as one section takes
the interventionist left approach (Putin is slowly grabbing
back all the assets of Russia from the crooked Oligarchs who
seized the gas and oil and banks to start with and went on
a ten-year orgy of consumption). Sadly it will it all under
state control again and Russia has an extremely bad record
of running companies and investing in infrastructure. But
then again, it will hold the west to ransom by withholding
gas or oil and do its best to destabilise Europe –its
more traditional role. You don’t need Cassandra to predict
any of that.
Which way will Germany lean? That’s a good question.
Still prosperous but at some point they will begin to notice
that no one can afford BMW’s and Mercedes and then what?
Just because you make the best cars doesn’t mean we can
borrow to buy them. Just as GM and Chrysler made some of the
worst (in the USA) and then wondered why no one bought them
– it all amounts to the same thing. Large purchases will
have to wait and if we collectively put if off too long –
those companies may well be gone when we finally need them.
Can we live without them? Sure. Will the millions thrown out
of work find other work to do? Maybe not. This is global.
When Toyota sneezes you know the whole world has influenza.
Has this happened before? I was tempted to use the Second
World War as an example, but discovered that productivity
rose throughout it. Unemployment was scarce, tanks and battleships
as well as soldiering are labour intensive.
The best I can come up with was 1919. Not only has the First
World War finished with millions upon millions dead, there
was a global flu pandemic (which may have killed as many at
ten million – no one was counting outside the west) and
a financial crash. Worldwide productivity was pretty catastrophic
and it took until around 1921 until economies began to move
again and new technologies developed in the war found their
way into consumer products.
Does that mean a war is inevitable? No. Of course not. We
fought the war to end all wars didn’t we? Oh yeah, there
was the small matter of WW11, but we’re all more sophisticated
than that now, right?
Well – what would you like to happen in 2009?
Perhaps that’s the way to approach it.
If you are going to graduate this year, go straight ahead
and do an MA – you aren’t going to get a job. (So
happens I run an MA at Portsmouth University in Creative Writing
so I’m open for business - see link below.) Or take a
gap year, if you have any funds. No one will hold it against
you and you may find that travel or volunteering in Africa
with http://www.vso.org.uk/
will look great on your CV in 2010 when people start hiring
again.
Hell, even if you were middle-management with transferable
skills the VSO is a good place to start. Just because our
economies have collapsed it doesn’t mean that that people
don’t need help to survive in Asia or Africa or wherever
and you will learn one hell of a lot.
Perhaps we won’t be so enamoured of TV reality shows
and want to do stuff for real ourselves? Or want to watch
shows about making great property deals. (Shows about how
to sell your house in a depression on the other hand…)
2009 will be a challenge. You, like me, will wish you had
saved for it. Values will change, needs too, a lot of us will
feel a lot less secure in our jobs or even our streets and
there lies another business opportunity ‘cause you can
bet your life the cops aren’t going to do it, they have
motorists to persecute to hit their targets – some things
never change.
We – through our contributors will continue to chronicle
it all – until we too succumb and be swallowed by debt.
Until that moment – endure and be like the Ox. Plough
through – look neither left nor right but keep on to
the far end of the field where your labour will be rewarded.
In the end – the answer – it seems – lies in
the soil.
Sam
North - Editor Feb 4th 2009
Sam is the editor of Hackwriters.com and author of Another
Place to Die - the future of the next flu pandemic and his
latest novel 'Mean Tide' was published June 2008 and
also the
author of the historical novel
Diamonds – The Rush of ‘72 |
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